A confident statement is a starting point for inquiry, not proof.
Your challenge
A fictional product claims to cut a school’s water use by half. Identify the evidence needed to assess the claim, audit three sources and design a fair comparison.
LEARN & APPLY / 1
Trace the source
Record who made a claim, when, for what purpose and on what evidence. An original report often reveals details that a summary leaves out. Check that a source actually supports the sentence attached to it.
Try it yourself
Create a source table with author, date, evidence and limitations.
LEARN & APPLY / 2
Ask what changed
To judge a claimed improvement, identify the baseline, units and other possible causes. A decrease in total water use could reflect fewer people at school rather than a better device.
Try it yourself
Write a researchable question and two alternative explanations.
LEARN & APPLY / 3
Design a fair test
Use a comparison, repeat measurements and decide how you will record the results before starting. A small or incomplete dataset may justify ‘we do not yet know’.
Try it yourself
Write a test plan another team could follow.
WHAT YOU WILL BE ABLE TO DO
Compare rates with consistent units and denominators.
Distinguish correlation, alternative explanations and evidence of causation.
WORKED EXAMPLE
See the thinking.
Water use falls from 1,000 to 750 litres/day while attendance falls from 100 to 60. Total use falls 25%, but use per learner rises from 10 to 12.5 litres/day. A headline about total savings hides the changed denominator.
RETRIEVE. EXPLAIN. CHECK.
Does this example establish that the device saves water per learner?
Write your own answer before opening the explanation. Then improve one sentence using what you learned.
Compare your reasoning
No. Water use per learner rose 25%, and a before-and-after comparison still cannot isolate the device's effect. Check attendance, measurement conditions and a suitable comparison.
Stretch yourself
Draw the data with labelled units and axes. Explain how missing measurement days could change your conclusion.
Public aggregate tables for practising source checks, units and comparisons. Record the year and limitations.
Look closer. Ask a better question.What can you observe, and what are you only assuming?Illustrated learning characters · fictional sceneTEN-MINUTE FIRST TRY
Try before you read the solution.
The Researcher records 600 litres for 60 attendees, then 480 litres for 40. Calculate litres per attendee. Is the second day more efficient on this measure?
Scratch space: not saved. Copy useful reasoning into your private workbook.
45–60 minutes · Paper or browser · No purchase required
Inventor
“Water use fell after we added our device. It must work!”
Researcher
“Attendance fell too. Let’s compare litres per learner before making that claim.”
Illustrated learning characters. Scenarios and numbers are fictional; your human mentor reviews your evidence.
01 / PREDICT
If total use falls while attendance falls faster, can use per learner increase?
Write a prediction before you reveal the worked reasoning.
Your starter material
Fictional readings before: (1,000 litres,100 learners), (950,95), (1,080,108). After: (750,60), (800,64), (875,70). Each row represents one day. No names or personal records are needed.
PRACTICAL STEP 1
Define the measure
Write a data dictionary: period, daily litres and daily attendance. Decide that litres per learner = litres ÷ attendance. A zero attendance value is undefined, not zero use per learner.
PRACTICAL STEP 2
Calculate and compare
Use the data lab. Calculate all six ratios; label a chart with units. Explain the difference between total use and use per learner.
PRACTICAL STEP 3
Rewrite the claim
State what the numbers support and what they cannot prove. Suggest a competing explanation and one additional observation that could help test it.
INTERACTIVE / NO ACCOUNT OR AI KEY NEEDED
Data investigation
Predict a result first. Change an input, compare the output and explain why it changed. These fictional models are learning aids.
Day 1: 1000 L ÷ 100 learners = 10.00 L/learner
Day 2: 950 L ÷ 95 learners = 10.00 L/learner
Day 3: 1080 L ÷ 108 learners = 10.00 L/learner
Day 4: 750 L ÷ 60 learners = 12.50 L/learner
Day 5: 800 L ÷ 64 learners = 12.50 L/learner
Day 6: 875 L ÷ 70 learners = 12.50 L/learner
Tool inputs reset when you leave. Download results or record them in your private mission workbook.
Compare with the crew’s reasoning
Every before day is 10 L/learner; every after day is 12.5 L/learner. The per-learner measure increased by (12.5−10)/10 ×100 =25%. Lower totals alone do not establish savings. Even this comparison cannot isolate the device’s effect from other changes.
Finding the answer is not evidence of mastery. Explain it, test a changed input and record your own work.
Your evidence checklist
All ratios have units and a nonzero denominator.
My claim agrees with the 25% increase per learner.
I separate an association from a causal explanation.
Independent challenge
Repeat with one missing attendance value. Explain why you exclude or investigate it instead of inventing a number.
Open the workbook template
Period | Litres | Attendance | Litres/learner | Data concern
Claim before analysis:
Claim after analysis:
Alternative explanation:
Additional evidence needed:
Choose a twist. Use paper, a sketch or a conversation.
Optional practice. Copy useful observations into your workbook; choosing a twist does not record completion.
Compare ideas with someone you know. Sharing is optional.
Need a hint or a clearer next step?
Work through The water-saving claim that changed with a focused prompt. Your notes stay private unless you choose to paste an excerpt here.
Use fictional examples. Leave out names, contact details, passwords and private records.
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